The strategic shift needed for greater growth, healthier leaders, and flourishing churches
NB: This article is shortened to blog-length. The full version is also available here.
Measuring What Matters
How do you measure success? In the Church we often think we know what to measure, but the very things we measure may actually be keeping us unhealthy. As churches we will usually celebrate success by pointing to numbers — growing attendance, expanding campuses, increasing revenue. These figures matter, but they can also hide something more troubling. Beneath the surface of growth, many churches are struggling with fragile leaders, shallow discipleship, and declining impact in their communities.
This is the hidden failure behind our success. Numbers reassure us that we are moving forward, yet at times they keep us from asking the deeper questions. They can soothe dysfunction while masking ill health. The problem is not that we are measuring things, but that we often measure the wrong things, and in doing so we risk mistaking viability for vitality, or activity for true Kingdom impact. We assume that there is health behind our growth and that there is substance beneath our size.
If we are to see greater growth, thriving leaders, and flourishing churches, we need the courage to make a strategic shift to measuring what really matters.
Drill Bits or Holes?
There is a story I love that reveals our blind-spot and clarifies the distinction we need. For years the Boston Drill Bit Company led the market, producing the finest drill bits in the world. Yet despite their excellence, their market share collapsed. A new CEO gathered the managers and asked: “What business are we in? What is our purpose here?” They confidently replied, “We are here to make drill bits; the finest drill bits in the world.” The CEO replied: “No. That’s not why we are here at all. We are here to make holes.”
That one shift in perspective changed everything. They realised they had been perfecting their product while forgetting their purpose. They moved into new technology and recaptured the market.
Churches face the same risk. We can refine our “drill bits” — services, programmes, and statistics — while neglecting the “holes” Jesus calls us to make: transformed lives, spiritual depth, authentic community, mobilised disciples, and Kingdom impact. Numbers tell us how many drill bits we are producing, but not whether we are actually making any holes. Numbers tell us how popular we are but not the impact we are making.
If we want to truly succeed and make a genuine impact, we have to move our measurements from our drill bits to our holes. We need to measure our mission.
What Our Numbers Don’t Tell Us
On the surface, church life in Aotearoa still looks active. Services are held, sermons are preached, groups continue to meet. The numbers suggest stability. But beneath that surface, the picture is far more troubling:
- The percentage of Christians continues to decline. We are not keeping up with population growth. [i]
- Leadership crisis. Training rates are dangerously low. Many denominations have a replacement rate of only 30–50%.[ii] One large denomination reported only three new candidates in training two years in a row — far short of what is needed for sustainability.
- Pastors are struggling. Mental health challenges are higher than the general public,[iii] and international research shows emotional intelligence tends to decrease the longer someone remains in ministry. [iv]
None of these realities appear in attendance reports or revenue figures. The very numbers we track can keep us from seeing that, while our activity may look successful, the health of the church is faltering. This is the hidden failure behind our success.
How the System Keeps Us Unhealthy
If the evidence is so clear, why do we stay the same? The truth is, it is not usually because pastors or denominational leaders are unwilling. The challenge is that the system itself keeps pulling us back to the numbers.
Denominations also want positive reports of growth. Pastors want significance and security. Congregations want to belong to something that looks successful. In each case, numbers provide an easy answer. They soothe anxiety, they create a sense of progress — even when deeper issues remain unresolved.
This is how numbers, without ever meaning to, keep our churches unhealthy. They do not just hide dysfunction, they reinforce it. The more we lean on them for validation, the harder it becomes to ask the courageous questions about whether true Kingdom impact is happening.
As the old saying goes, “A system is perfectly designed to give you the results you are currently getting.” (W. Edward Deming). The system that we are all a part of is perfectly designed to give us the crisis that we are currently in. It has created wearied and pressured leaders, shallow discipleship, and declining Christianity in our country. The question is, “Are we prepared to change for greater health and impact or are we satisfied with just seeing growing attendance?”
Why Course Correction Is Hard
One of the greatest dangers in church life is that numbers can be an anaesthetic to dysfunction. They dull our awareness of deeper problems by giving the appearance of success.
I have spoken with pastors of growing churches who, when asked about their churches’ spiritual depth, community impact, or people coming to faith, discover most of their growth was simply transfer. The numbers looked strong, but the mission outcomes were flat.
I have seen other churches where people are coming to faith, but beneath the surface leaders were exhausted or staff and volunteers were being chewed up and spat out. Because the numbers looked great, no one asked the hard questions or felt they could challenge a “strong and successful” leader. But they needed to.
This is the hidden failure behind our success. Numbers are not wrong — they tell part of the story; they just do not tell the whole story. They can hide dysfunction, reinforce unhelpful patterns, and keep us from achieving what matters most.
From Numbers to Impact: Measuring What Really Matters
If numbers alone can hide unhealth, how do we measure what really matters? The answer is not to abandon numbers, but to shift our focus — from what looks successful to what creates true Kingdom impact. The objection is often that it is hard to measure qualitative aspects of mission and purpose. This is true, but in reality, we measure qualitative aspects all the time. It just takes more thinking and a pathway to know how to do it.
Below is an abbreviated template for how to clarify and measure the mission.
- Kingdom Outcomes (the Hole)
Our starting point is Jesus. The Church belongs to Him, so we allow Him to determine what our outcomes and impact need to be. Consider, “What would Jesus define as success for your church? What would warm His heart to see?” Then build a strategy around that. - Qualities
Broad outcomes must be translated into observable qualities. For example, if the outcome is “love one another,” then qualities might look like: everyone feels connected and cared for, conflict is resolved quickly, forgiveness is practised, and respect is the norm. - Outcome KPIs
You can then quantify the qualitative by assigning measurable outcomes to the qualities. This can either be goals set or progress tracked. For example:
- 80% of people are in small groups, or there is a steady increase in participation.
- Surveys asking, “I feel connected and cared for in my small group,” average 8/10 or trend upward year-on-year.
- Action KPIs
These are the controllable steps that drive the outcomes. Action KPIs mobilise the whole church to carry the vision together.
When we distinguish between the means of ministry (the drill bit) and the mission impact (the hole), we can continually ask the courageous question: “Is this the best way to make the hole?”
Conclusion: The Courage to Make the Strategic Shift
A system is perfectly designed to give us the results we are currently getting. We have to start by looking beyond the seduction of size to examine the results of mission impact, including at a macro level the percentage of Christians in our area, enthused and effective pastors, depth of discipleship, and mobilisation of the congregation into their calling.
The question is not just, “are we getting the results we want?”, the deeper question is, “are these the results Jesus wants for His Church?”.
If the answer is no, then something must change. We need the courage to shift our scorecards, to name what truly matters, and to measure what truly matters. When we do, we stop mistaking activity for impact, size for substance, or popularity for vitality. This is the shift we need if we want pastors leading from fullness rather than emptiness, and churches pursuing discipleship over mere attendance.
If your church or denomination wants to move beyond numbers and clarify Kingdom outcomes, I would love to walk that journey with you. To explore how to begin, contact me at richard@thrivingchurcheshq.com
Let’s create a future of greater growth, healthier pastors, and genuinely flourishing churches.
[i] David Kinnaman, ‘Signs of Decline and Hope Among Key Metrics of Faith’, Faith and Christianity in State of the Church, 2020; Daniel Silliman, ‘Decline of Christianity Shows No Signs of Stopping’, Christianity Today, 2022; Georgina Campbell, ‘Census Data NZ: More Than Half of the Population Has No Religion.’, The New Zealand Hearld, 20 September 2023, https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/census-data-nz-more-than-half-of-the-population-has-no-religion/YT2KJBSTQNBDTPVDHJYHNALIZA/.
[ii] Barna Group, The State of Pastors: How Today’s Church Leaders Are Pursuing Resilience and Stepping into a Hopeful Future, vol. 2 (Barna Group, 2024), 68. Also, my personal communication with New Zealand denominational leaders.
[iii] Rae Jean Proeschold-Bell and Jason Byassee, Faithful and Fractured: Responding to the Clergy Health Crisis (Grand Rapids, Michigan: Baker Academic, 2018), 37.
[iv] Christopher R. Gambill, ‘Emotional Intelligence and Conflict Management Style among Christian Clergy’ (Capella University, 2008), 99; Kelvin John Randall, ‘Emotional Intelligence: What Is It, and Do Anglican Clergy Have It?’, Mental Health, Religion & Culture 17, no. 3 (2014): 8.
